It appears the update is attempting to connect to a broken URL, but electing not to update still does not prevent the popup error.
This issue has been ongoing for what feels like a month or 2. Very frustrating especially at the office where we have 90 users complaining of the errors. Adobe releases stupid amounts of Flash player updates yet still have not addressed this.
I have the same problem, and it's a problem a lot of folks have--based on a simple internet search. It's really nice of Adobe to provide this forum where we can bring up issues like this. It'd be even nicer if they'd tell us how to solve the problem. Just sayin'