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I think that by building on the already big user Base of AS and flash, Adobe have secured a solution for the initial run of the platform. Without any doubt, if AIR will not have thousands of users posting code and sharing information, it will collapse, Similar coding languages are around and will happily take it's place.
At the moment, this is the main forum for Air developers, there are a few others forums and websites which are Flex/Actionscript related, The answer to your question I believe lies there. From my own experience and the team around me, there are alot of gaps and holes in the architecture, some gaps are being filled (note BlazeDS..) some other will take more time to fill.
The early adopters developers will have to suffer and hope for the best, it's always the case, we cannot do more then contributing on the forums, send emails and release as much code as possible. As to your question regarding the future, it will only be answered by the great force of time.
Flex has a good chance -- on top of what was already said, most of the alternatives for RIAs suck. (Yay for "hacky Ajax RIAs"? lol)
I guess people just haven't realized how much what they're currently using sucks yet. Hopefully that'll change soon. Basically it's up to people currently using it to prove the technology's worthiness before everyone else is brave enough to abandon their precious (and crummy) "industry standards".
And do some browsing for who's adopting (or at least "moving towards") Flex: Ebay, Yahoo, Google... (sounds good to me)