Same as in your other thread - roto work. Otherwise you could simulate it fully digitally in a 3D program and comp it in.
I'd like to avoid 3D so rotoing is the option. I'll do some more research on this.
Figure out a way to do this practically. If you could hide something under the water and move it so that it appears a tire has gone through, you'll be golden. You can possibly remove wires/pipes/etc. that lead into the water in post.
These are the shoulders of giants: practical special effects are much more fun than simulations. How do you think the industry did all that cool stuff before computers and 3D? Stop-action, mattes, rotoscoping, lots of experimenting and blowing stuff up.
I would be trying high velocity air jets for this effect. You need to deform the water from above the surface. But that's just the start. As Szalam says, something under the water will create the spay. But ti will have to move in sync with the surface effect.