Here's my personal take on this:
We have similar conversations inside the company as well. Those studies were conducted by independent third parties, and were insanely expensive. At the time, those efforts were funded by Adobe's marketing team, which is a whole different arm of the company. We're looking at options for resurrecting and sharing that kind of insight with developers, but those are long-term plans and we haven't committed them to the schedule.
I agree with Anton -- you have the ability to directly measure your audience on your domain, which is really the most relevant predictor of user experience for your situation anyway.
I took a look at your Google+ chart, and I think the one thing you need to think about is matching your data collection window to the Flash Player release cycle. It's complicated, so the snapshot you get is going vary pretty widely based on when you take it.
We publish monthly, on Patch Tuesday (typically the 2nd Tuesday of the mont). In addition, patch updates and out of cycle security updates are pushed out via background update as needed. Taking a snapshot from October 1 - October 30 is going to give you a weird view of adoption, but it gets more complicated still. You'd probably want to allow an additional 48 hours after publication to ensure that the bulk of users in the auto-update system have detected and installed the update. I'd also recommend looking at the full versions (not just the major version tuple), just so you get a clearer picture of what that pipeline looks like.
Quarterly feature-bearing releases (the ones where the major version increments) require a manual download for the first 30 days, after which they're made available via background update to all users that have opted-in to updates. Because there's that month lag on the quarterly releases, you'll definitely see some bifurcation in the two latest major versions, but it should merge again once the first patch update for the new version becomes available (i.e. if the major releases land on months 1,4,7,10, then months 2,5,8,11 should have more normalized major version adoption, and you can probably make some reasonable inferences about what the auto-update opt-in rate is in your sample population by looking at the delta after 48 hours of the first patch update).
Enterprise users are frequently on the Extended Support Release, which trails the current release by 6-18 months, but include all the security patches. These guys probably aren't your target audience. This provides pain-relief for IT organizations that have mission-critical applications that depend on Flash Player and associated testing and support costs. That could explain part of the population still on Flash Player 13, as that's where the ESR is. Linux users are relegated to Flash Player 12 on NPAPI, although the current version of Flash Player is available for Linux users via PPAPI on Chrome (and we currently recommend that everyone that's using Linux migrate to Chrome for the best Flash experience, if possible).
Anyone on versions less than Flash Player 13 should be assumed to be outside of the auto-update system (if my memory is right, I think we landed that around Flash Player 10 or 11).
Now, both Chrome and Internet Explorer on Windows 8 include Flash Player as a built-in component. If you take a look at the global browser adoption stats over time (and/or you look at what browser that trailing population is using), I think what you'll see is a population of folks that just never update anything, and/or they're on browsers that are in steep decline in terms of year-over-year penetration. My guess is that Chrome and IE on Win8+ will take up the majority of that slack over the new couple years, as we those populations migrating to newer browsers for a better experience or because they're replacing hardware with modern operating systems (and we're already seeing some real traction with Win8 vs. XP in this regard, although the XP population is much higher than we anticipated for this point in time, and seems particularly resilient).
My expectation is that those populations on really old versions will end up in the "always updated" population using Flash Player as a built-in component of their platform as they retire their existing hardware.
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