Still no solution! Please don't keep ESR-users hanging w/o the current security patches.
The new Flash ESR 18.104.22.1682 ActiveX msi package is broken, too. It behaves exactly as I described above for version 22.214.171.1240.
The following msi packages install fine on the same machine:
Flash ESR 126.96.36.1992 Plugin msi (install_flash_player_13_plugin.msi)
Flash ESR 188.8.131.529 ActiveX msi (install_flash_player_13_active_x.msi)
Flash 184.108.40.2067 ActiveX msi (install_flash_player_16_active_x.msi)
Flash 220.127.116.117 Plugin msi (install_flash_player_16_plugin.msi)
Only the two most recent ESR ActiveX msi packages 18.104.22.1680 and 22.214.171.1242 (both released in January 2015) cannot be installed.
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I finally found out what the problem was and I also have a workaround:
The problem manifests itself only when on the machines one of the most recent non-ESR Versions (16.x) had been installed before (a "virgin" machine is not affected).
These packages leave a registry-key behind even after deinstallation, which prevents a future Installation of the most recent ESR versions 126.96.36.1990 and later.
This key or better the values it contains mark all (supposedly) older versions, including the current ESR version, as unsafe and the installation fails (interestingly only the ActiveX msi seems to be affected).
The problematic reg-key is "HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE\SOFTWARE\Macromedia\FlashPlayer\SafeVersions" (and for Win x64 also "HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE\SOFTWARE\Wow6432Node\Macromedia\FlashPlayer\SafeVersion").
By deleting this key before installing / deploying the newest ESR msi the problem vanishes. Reg-keys can be deleted with a Group policy.
Nonetheless, it would be nice if Adobe could change the behavior of the 16.0.0.x msi-packages in the future so that the newest ESR-version is also considered safe to install.
great help!!! it resolved my issue.. super happy!!