The image in the screenshot DSC_0539.NEF is a raw image file, which has a gamut far exceeding sRGB. The in-camera setting for color profile has no effect on raw files. Only in-camera JPEG files can be output to sRGB color space. See this video tutorial for more information on soft proofing in LR:
>Or am I over thinking this?
Yes. If your display is sRGB approximately, just make it look good on your display. You can also go to sRGB proof if you have a wider gamut display (is this a 5K iMac?) and make it look good there (ignore the out-of-gamut warning - just turn it off). The gamut warning just shows you areas of potential concern where you might be losing detail (but you don't necessarily will!). You should not try to completely fix them but you should focus on making the image look good. There doesn't appear to be anything really problematic about the first image in loss of detail, so I would focus on making the color look as good as you can as that is far more important to the product shot I would guess.
...Or am I over thinking this?
I am an avid photographer interested only in creating great photos. I am not involved in any industry or profession where color correctness is vital, so FWIW, here is my bird's-eye view of Soft-proofing.
I find soft proofing of limited value and seldom use it, but it does occasionally have a use.
First of all, it is useful to preview what my final print may look like. This requires an ICC profile associated with a specific paper/printer combination usually supplied by the paper manufacturer, not a color space such as sRGB.
I will sometimes look to see how much and what part of my image may be out of gamut. If it is a small area in an insignificant part of the image, I turn it off, it does not matter. However, if a large part of the main subject of the image is out of gamut, it might be possible to get a more satisfactory print by changing Rendering Intent (Perceptual or Relative), especially in the details. But if a color is out of gamut, there not much you can do about it...except...
You can change to a different paper, with its own specific ICC profile. Some times this may help get the print you want.
If this doesn't work, you can change the printer. Not an option for me because I only have one printer.
But, if a color is out of gamut, no amount of soft proofing is going to change that. Out of Gamut simply means that the paper/printer combination is incapable of producing the exact same color that is in the image. Yes, you can change contrast to make the print pop a little more, you can change white balance or saturation, but that is only changing color to something in gamut, which is what the printer is going to do anyway.
If a color is out of gamut, than it is what it is! No need to fret over it; just make the print. If you like it...great! if not, move on...do not over think this.