To understand better what happens in your case I need some information. Could you export the same object to svg for us to take a look at its structure and understand what happens?
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I found the reason in your SVG to be the shadow on what's called 'Ellipse 312' in the document.
The blur of 6 is actually using 9 pixels to render (you can see this if you set a solid shadow color) and if you add that tot he 3px drop of the shadow you get more than the 11 pixels you have from the surrounding group.
This shadow does not impact the parent size but we do want it output in the PNG rasterization, that's why you get a different file size (you can test with larger drop shadow Ys to see this).
In this particular case, setting 5.33 instead of 6 to the shadow's blur factor fixes your issue.
Using a rectangular path of 290x290 to mask the current object also works.
Hope this helps,
Thank you for investigating.
It's a bit of a nightmare but at least there is a workaround with a rectangular path mask!