I saw your post on StackOverflow as well, and commented there too. It's possible you need to update your Java JDK to the minimum supported version required by Update 5: JDK 8 u121 or higher. Are you already on that version or higher?
Once again Adobe underwhelms in the documentation department. If the lockdown guide is followed, then the JRE is updated in a separate directory and CF pointed to use that new directory in jvm.config. The guide alludes to the need to keep the original bundled version present but not used. This is the same as the instructions in the ColdFusion blog about updating the JVM
For the update it specifies: "This security update requires ColdFusion to be on JDK 8u121 or higher"... and then, in the manual install instructions, it states the seemingly incompatible statement: "Ensure that the JRE bundled with ColdFusion is used for executing the downloaded JAR. For standalone ColdFusion, this must be at, <cf_root>/jre/bin."
So which is it? The latest downloaded JRE, or the one *BUNDLED WITH COLDFUSION* - as these are not the same JRE and the one that came bundled with CF is u120 (at least in my case it was).
I can say I'm delighted to have everything virtualized so I can at least take a snapshot before hand and not have a long night of recovery ahead of me. I'm going to read between the lines and assume either will work for install but that the server must be updated to have the patch actually apply. Definitely could be clearer.
Mark did you try just /opt it will then create the subdirectory for you. I think it might be saying that /opt/coldfusion2016 is invalid because it does not exist, and it is expecting you to specify a directory that exists.
I think the reason why they say: Ensure that the JRE bundled with ColdFusion is used for executing the downloaded JAR. Is to avoid the potential that you have a really old version of Java installed on your server as the default. This exact statement was also included in the instructions for Update 4, it should have been updated/clarified this time around.
I am not aware of any reasons that it is necessary to use the bundled JRE. I would expect it will work just fine if you use the latest JRE to execute the JAR.