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I am by no means an expert but i'll try and help you anyway.
Those are adobe's statistics, look around a bit. They say emerging markets and by that they mean China, S. Korea, Russia, India and Taiwan.. so you judge.
that's an estimate of the number of computers in countries around the world.. which is pretty useless data unless you believe you can judge the capabilities of those computers based off how common they are.
That's just my attempt at finding you some statistics. Personally, I've had tons of experiences where i presented work in flash on computers that just couldn't handle very simple tweens. So, i'd be hesitant to use flash depending on the situation. If your site is intended to sell something that's worth a considerable amount of money then i'd go ahead and go with flash, but if it's a service like.. well you know, UNICEF, then i'd probably use HTML. That's just my opinion, you know?
Good luck with your site, and i hope you can find some better data.
Thanks for your reply. I appreciate it.
It is a website for alternative energy. The company owner is very design sensitive and wants an engaging experience but he's definitely aware of the low bandwidth restrictions and doesn't want to neglegt those viewers.
It's a startup so the budget might end up being an issue.
I'm leaning more and more towards the development of 2 separate sites (high/low bandwidth, flash/php&html) reading from the same XML data perhaps. Trying to spend more time and effort on the high bandwidth and then create a low bandwidth version as a second viewing option. The main reason being that if we develop only one site and try to accomodate both markets we'll end up spending a lot of time researching and determining the ideal "middleground" in terms of acceptable bandwidth and flash player version.
I'll need to budget out the two and see how one solution compares to the other...
I think that your idea of making two websites is fantastic. A static website would also help your search engine optimization, too. So it's a win-win.
Anyway, as i said before, good luck with your project! It sounds very interesting.