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Adobe has a web-page that gives flashPlayer penetration statistics from their tracking.
This only gives stats for the major versions, though, not the minor versions. They almost need to give stats for minor versions with player9, considering the major changes that happened between 9,0,47 and 9,0,115.
Personally, I don't mind getting prompted to update my player. Typically, I have seen companies wait 2 versions before updating, to ensure penetration. Some companies are still publishing to player5 currently, while others have updated to player7, and sometimes 8. Only the cutting edge companies are even publishing to player9 yet.
The key is to know your audience. If the majority of your audience would be on "the cutting edge" when it comes to technology, then it is likely that they will have already upgraded their flash player to the most current, and will not mind a reminder that they haven't updated yet.
rrittchey is correc, "Know your auddience." For example if your audience is corporate folks a lot of IT departments I know won't update to Flash 9 plug-in until Flash 11 has been out for a while. So that would be quite some time.
If your audience has control over their own machines and they are motivated to want to see your content then I see no reason why they wouldn't want to upgrade.
If you are somewhere in the middle, then maybe waiting until the 10 plug-in comes out might make sense.
Excellent advice, thank you both for your help.
Btw I was able to ask someone with web google analytics and (for their site anyway) the market share for v115 is about 15% right now.