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Are you using hardware acceleration for export? That could be the key. Let us know.
This is normal. Depending on the content of your video, it could end up with much lower sizes than the estimate. Large blocks of the same colour and/or little movement in the video will produce smaller file sizes.
You can test this with a new sequence, just place a Black Video in it and set its length to something around 15 minutes. The export dialog will estimate a file size over 1 GB with the H.264 High Bitrate preset, but the exported clip will only be a couple of MB in size.
I seem to be having the exact opposite problem.
I need to export videos in a box (1080x1080) format so I use the "Match Source- High Bitrate" option. For previews I need to export a smaller version so I reduce the bitrate to get an estimated file size of 8 MB. But the exported file turns out to be 25 MBs.
I'm using Premier 2018. Can you help me with correcting this?