I am having this very same problem.
Did you manage to solve it? If so, how??
I've been trying to figure it out for the past 5 days and it's driving me crazy!!!
I exported a 3 minutes sequence and it exported to tape fine. But when I tried to do the entire film - 55 minutes - it began the 'transcoding' then just stopped and went back to the 'render and record' pop up without any error message or anything.
I am trying to get from CS3 to a Sony HDV deck.