My understading of http://forums.adobe.com/message/3562892#3562892 (March 2011) is that when an outdated version of the Player is used on Windows, the prompt to update should occur after the next restart of the operating system.
So, when http://www.adobe.com/software/flash/about/ in Safari for Windows shows an outdated version 10.x of the Player:
Usually, no matter how long I wait, there is no prompt to update; Flash Player Settings Manager continues to show an outdated plug-in alongside a greater version of the ActiveX item.
I see this problem with multiple computers running Windows XP and Windows 7.
Flash Player checks for updates every 7 days. The NCP doesn’t change this. Where the user in that post is getting confused is that only after Flash Player detected an update (on average 3.5 days after a new version is released), the dialog will appear after a restart.